开放三十年政府支出对二元经济的转化效果

基于中国1978-2008年时间序列数据，采用时变参数模型对我国政府支出对二元经济结构转化效果进行分析，结果表明：改革开放30年来，我国政府支出对城乡二元经济结构转化的影响曲线呈U形；政府分类支出方面，不同时期，政府分类支出对二元经济结构转化效果的影响不同。近年来，政府行政性支出和民生性支出对二元经济结构转化具有一定正向影响，但影响效果在不断下降；而基本建设支出对二元经济转化产生了负向影响。要通过制度创新调整政府支出结构，以促进二元经济结构向好的方向转化。

Study of the Effect of Government Expenditures on Dual Economic Structure Transformation in the 30 Years Chinese Reform and Openness

Based on the China＇ s time series data from 1978 to 2008, this paper uses the time-varying parameter model to analyze the effect of government expenditures on dual economic structure transformation. The result shows that in three decades of reform and opening up, the government total expenditures on the urban-rural dual economic structure transformation shows U-shaped curve and that in terms of specific expenditures, in different periods, the government classified expenditure has the different effects on the dual economic structure transformation. In recent years, governmental administrative expenditure and livelihood expenditure have positive effect on the dual economic transformation, but the effect is falling, however, capital expenditure on infrastructure has negative impact on the dual economic transformation. Governmental expenditure structure should be adjusted by institutional innovation to promote dual economic structure to be transformed in positive direction.