基于边际等值的区域洪水资源最优利用量决策研究

从微观经济学的角度出发,基于边际等值原理,构建了洪水资源最优利用量决策模型,确定区域洪水资源的最优利用量。该模型利用边际效益和边际损失的等值关系分析确定最优利用量,达到洪水资源利用净效益最大化和风险损失最小化的目标。以白城市2005年洪水资源利用为研究背景,对月亮泡水库进行了实例计算,确定该水库洪水资源最优利用量为4.2亿m3,并将该方法的结果与基于熵权的多目标模糊优选法的计算结果进行对比,结果表明前者比后者确定的洪水资源最优利用量多1.7亿m3,洪水资源利用率提高至21%;白城市2005年洪水资源最优利用量为18.05亿m3,产生的经济效益为9.40亿元人民币。表明本文模型是有效和可行的。

Optimal utilization of regional flood resources based on equal marginal principle

Based on the equal marginal principle in micro economics, a decision making model of optimal utilization of flood resources is established. The model utilizes the equivalence relationship between marginal benefit and marginal damage to properly deal with the relationship between flood resources benefit and risk loss and determine the optimal utilizable quantity of flood resources for the purpose of maximizing the net benefit and minimizing the risk loss. The model is applied to calculate the optimal utilizable flood water resources of the Yueliangpao Reservoir in Baicheng City. The result shows that the amount of optimal utilizable flood water is 4.20×10.8 m3 which is more than that calculated by using multi objective fuzzy optimization method based on entropy weight by 1.70×10.8m3, and the utilization rate of flood water resources is increased to 21%. The further analysis on the total flood water resources in Baicheng City, including the flood water in Yueliangpao Reservoir, ponds and wetlands, shows that the optimal total utilizable flood water resources in 2005 is about 18.05×10.8m3 with economic benefit 9.40×10.8 Yuan RMB.