普惠金融能成为促进中国产业结构优化升级的新动能吗 —基于互联网发展的机制分析

运用中国283个城市2003—2016年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型、工具变量模型和面板门槛模型等分析方法,研究了普惠金融、互联网发展对中国产业结构优化升级的作用机理及因果关系。研究发现:普惠金融正向显著促进了中国产业结构升级。互联网发展具有调节效应和中介效应,这两种效应具有阶段特征和区域异质性。普惠金融借助互联网对产业结构优化升级的影响,具有非线性特征和网络溢出效应。最后提出政策建议。

Can inclusive finance promote the improvement of China""s industrial structure -- mechanism analysis based on Internet development

Abstract: research objective: Article empirical analysis impact of inclusive finance and Internet development on the optimization and upgrading of China"s industrial structure. Research methods: Using panel data of Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016, using fixed effect model, instrumental variable regression model and panel threshold model, etc. This paper studies the mechanism and causal relationship between the development of inclusive finance and Internet and the optimization and upgrading of China"s industrial structure. Research findings: It is found that the expansion of financial breadth (inclusive finance) is significantly promoting the upgrading of China"s industrial structure. The development of Internet plays a moderating and mediating role in this process, which is a gradual transition process with regional heterogeneity and threshold effect. The development of the Internet has expanded transaction boundaries and raised the level of financial inclusiveness. The coupling development of the two has nonlinear characteristics and significant network spillover effect on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Research innovation: Based on more abundant urban data, the empirical test shows that inclusive finance is a new driving force for the optimization and upgrading of China"s industrial structure. And the Internet is an intermediary and effective way to empower. Research value: The results provide evidence for the transformation of financial development patterns and the implementation of inclusive finance. This proves that "Internet + inclusive finance" is the way to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It is proved that Internet development is a powerful way to optimize and upgrade China"s industrial structure. While transforming the mode of financial development, it is also necessary to accelerate the technological innovation and upgrading of the Internet and strengthen the in-depth integration of the two. The empirical content has policy implications.