Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Health Science Laboratory, Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd., 1-98, Kasugadenaka 3-chome, Konohana-ku, Osaka, 554-8558, Japan;2. Faculty of Biomedical Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe University, 7-5-1 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, 650-0017, Japan;1. University of Bergen, Norway;2. Singapore Management University, Singapore;1. School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, NW, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA;2. Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, KAIST, 291 Daehak-ro, Daejeon 305-701, South Korea;3. Research & Development, Weyerhaeuser NR, 33663 Weyerhaeuser Way S, Federal Way, WA 98001, USA;1. Institute of Economics, Academa Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan;2. Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei 11529, Taiwan;3. Department of International Business, National Chengchi University, 64, Section 2, Zhi-nan Road, Wenshan, Taipei 116, Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909 to 1990, employing data up to 2012, hence for 104 years, and unit-root tests with endogenously selected break points. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion. There is thus no sign of a new break in the extended recent time period and no signal of a secular increase of timber resource scarcity. |
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| Keywords: | Roundwood Timber Natural-resource rents Unit root |
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