中美农产品贸易收支与人民币兑美元汇率关系研究

自人民币汇率改革以来,人民币汇率波动与国际贸易的关系,受到了国内外学者的广泛关注。本文通过协整模型和误差修正模型探讨了中美农产品贸易与人民币兑美元汇率间的关系。研究表明从长期看,人民币兑美元汇率变化与中美农产品贸易存在着均衡关系,但在短期内,中美农产品贸易与人民币汇率变化的均衡关系并不明显。为此,中国应采取切实可行的措施,规避中美农产品贸易的短期风险。

Study on the Relation Between the Sino-US Agricultural Trade and the RMB Exchange Rate

since China carried out the reform of the RMB exchange rate on July 2005,many scholars pay attention to the relation between the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and the international trade.We discuss the relation between the Sino-US agricultural trade and the RMB exchange rate by the cointegration model and the error correction model.Our study shows that,from a long term,the Sino-US agricultural trade and the exchange rate is equilibrium;but from short term,the equilibrium is not obvious.To this end,China should take practical measures to avoid short-term risk of the Sino-US agricultural trade.