基于支持向量机的旅游客源预测模型研究

为了能够进行合理的旅游规划和管理,应该对旅游客源进行准确的预测,因此,深入地研究了支持向量机在旅游客源预测中的应用。首先,分析了支持向量机的基本理论;其次,分析了近年来我国境内旅游市场发展情况,并且分析了旅游市场变化的原因;然后,进行了旅游客源预测实际分析,首先根据1996-2011年期间我国旅游客数据验证了支持向量机的预测准确性,然后对2012-2018年我国境内旅游客源数量进行预测,从而为旅游机构进行旅游配套设施建立提供了有利的理论依据。

Research on Forecast Model of Tourist Market Based on Support Vector Machine Theory

It’s necessary to forecast the tourist source in order to make a reasonable tourism planning and management.Therefore,the paper has an in-depth study of the application of support vector machine prediction of tourist.The paper analyses the theory of support vector machines,the development of China’ s domestic tourism market in recent years,the reasons for the change of tourism market,and then the analysis of the tourist forecast.China’ s tourism data from 1996-2010 can ensure vector machine prediction accurate and then predicts China’ s tourist number from 2012-2018 so as to offer theoretical support for the tourism facilities establishment in travel agency.