| 基于结构计量模型分析渠道结构变动的影响——以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王磊,张昕竹,易江南. 基于结构计量模型分析渠道结构变动的影响——以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例[J]. 中国工业经济, 2012, 0(2): 108-118 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王磊 张昕竹 易江南 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国社会科学院研究生院;江西财经大学规制与竞争研究中心;中国社会科学院规制与竞争研究中心;天音通讯有限公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“利用非线性定价促进能源节约的基础理论与实证研究”(批准号71173236);国家自然科学基金项目“搜索引擎市场结构的形成机理、影响与规制研究”(批准号71003010);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目“双边市场反垄断困局与出路——以典型产业为例”(批准号DUT11RW405) |
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| 摘 要： | 以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例,本文运用结构计量模型对渠道结构变动的经济效应做了实证分析。在估计出需求参数和渠道成本参数的基础上,本文通过反事实模拟方法,评估了中国移动推行后向一体化战略对产业链上各行为主体的经济影响。结果发现,国代商同时向社会渠道和中国移动渠道分销定制机存在显著的规模经济;中国移动收回国代商定制机的分销代理权后,国代商与中国移动自身的边际成本均有所上升,且二者的利润边际都出现下降,这意味着中国移动改变企业边界和渠道结构安排是明显的"双输"决策。
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| 关 键 词： | 企业边界 垂直关系 定制机分销模式 经济效应 结构计量模型 |
Empirical Study on the Economic Effects of the Changes of Channel Structure |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Lei1,ZHANG Xin-zhu2,3,YI Jing-nan4(1.Graduate School CASS,Beijing 100488,China; 2.Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China; 3.Research Center for Regulation and Competition CASS,Beijing 100732,China; 4.Telling Telecommunication Holding Company,Beijing 100031,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the change of distribution channel of China Mobile(CM) customized cellular phone for example,we applied a structural econometric model to assess the effects of the changes of channel structure.Based on the estimated demand and channel cost parameters,we then makes use of counterfactual simulation to evaluates the effects on the economic agent in the industrial chain of the channel structure change of backward integration by China Mobile.The results show that there are significant economies of scale when the national distributors simultaneously operate social and CM distribution system.After the withdrawal of the distribution dealership by CM,the marginal costs of the national distributors and CM both have increased while their profit margins declined,implying that this change of channel structure by CM is a "lose-lose" decision. |
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| Keywords: | firm boundary vertical relationship distribution channel economic effects structural econometric model |
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