动态偏离-份额分析法在区域经济中的应用

作者在传统静态的偏离-份额分析法的基础上,引入动态化思想,把研究期的时间纬度进行了拓展,不仅揭示了各分量因素对增长总量的贡献,而且还展现了各分量因素在不同时间发展变化程度的差异.对西部12省市的应用分析表明动态偏离-份额分析法既能揭示不同工业行业部门的变化特征,又能量化分析不同年份各工业行业的竞争力和贡献率,因此有助于更客观地分析工业行业结构的优劣,正确评价各工业行业的竞争力强弱,从而为区域工业结构调整提出科学的依据和方向.

The Application of Dynamic Shift- share Analysis in Regional Economy

On the basis of traditional static shift-share analysis,the authors introduce the dynamic idea and extends the time dimension of the research period,which not only opens out the contribution of each decomposed factor to the total increment,but also shows the differences in variation extents of all factors in different time periods.An analysis of the application in twelve western provinces and cities indicates dynamic shift-share analysis not only opens out the variance characteristics of different industrial sectors but also makes a quantificational analysis of the competitiveness and contribution rate in different years.Therefore,dynamic shift-share analysis is helpful for the objective analysis of the superiority and inferiority of industry structure and the correct evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the competitiveness of each industry,and therefore proposes the science basis and direction for the adjustment of regional industry structure.