中俄双边贸易增长成因及贸易空间拓展研究

本文采用恒定市场份额模型(CMS),就2001～2005年和2006～2010年两个时间段,对两国双边贸易的增长成因进行了实证分析。结果显示,进口需求效应和出口竞争力效应的贡献是推动中国对俄罗斯出口增长的主要原因;而俄罗斯对中国出口增长则主要由进口需求效应贡献。在进一步分析中俄两国主要出口商品构成的基础上,提出应拓宽双方贸易和经济合作领域,改善目前两国经贸合作的结构和质量。

Research on the Causes of China -Russia Bilateral Trade Growth and Expansion of Trade Space

This article used constant market share model(CMS) to analysed the causes of growth of bilateral trade betweem China and Russia during the periods of 2001 ~2005 and 2006 ~2010.The results showed that import demand effects and the contribution of export competitiveness effect were major forces promoting China’s exports to Russia;and Russia’s export growth was mainly contributed by effects of import demand of China.Further analysis of major export commodities composition suggested that the two nations should expand bilateral trade and strengthen economic cooperation to improve the structure and quality of trade and economic cooperation.