人民币升值压力的演进、成因分析和应对措施

本文分析了人民币汇率升值压力演进历程的三个阶段,并结合中国的贸易收支、国内外利差和中国的通货膨胀情况三类经济基本面因素研究了人民币升值压力的来源。分析发现近期人民币汇率已经不存在大幅低估甚至可能高估,无需一次性大幅升值。因此,中国必须认清升值压力的本质,继续坚持＂自主性＂掌控人民币汇率形成机制的改革路径,必要时可实施反制措施。

The analysis on the evolution and the response measures of RMB appreciation pressures

The article analyzed the three evolution stages of the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressures evolution, and studied the source of the RMB appreciation pressure with China＇s international trade balance, domestic and foreign interest rate differentials and China＇s inflation situation. The analysis found that the RMB exchange rate did not substantially undervalued and may even overestimated, so one-off revaluation is not necessary. Therefore, China must recognize the nature of the appreciate pressure, adhere to the way of ＂autonomy control＂ of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and conduct some counter- measures if necessary.