农业补贴政策影响及调整方向研究

本文深入研究了农业补贴政策对粮食供给总量安全、粮食供给结构安全以及农户总收入水平的影响效果。基于构建的农业DSGE模型，从宏微观结合的多方位视角考察了多种农业补贴政策以及政府一般性服务支持政策对农业生产要素资本积累水平、农户投入行为决策、农业生产力水平以及农户总收入的影响效果和传导路径，并在此基础上结合宏观经济数据的真实反馈分析，全面考察了核心经济变量在农业补贴政策实施期间的真实影响效果。研究结果显示：（1）农业补贴政策能够有效刺激农户对农业生产要素投入水平的提高，深层激发和释放了农业生产力；（2）农业补贴政策能够有效保证农户基本经营收入水平，并显著增加农户可支配转移净收入水平，对保障农户基本总收入起重要作用；（3）最低收购价和临时收储等托市价格政策会刺激农产品价格呈现上升趋势，并不利于农业种植结构不平衡的调节。

Study on the Influence and Adjustment Direction of Agricultural Subsidy Policy

This paper deeply studies the effect of agricultural subsidy policy on total grain supply security, grain supply structure security and household income level. Based on the constructed agricultural DSGE model, the effects and transmission paths of various agricultural subsidy policies and government general service support policies on the capital accumulation level of agricultural production factors, farmers'' input behavior decision-making, agricultural productivity level and total income of farmers were investigated from the perspective of macro and micro combination. On this basis, the real feedback analysis of macroeconomic data was combined. The real effects of core economic variables during the implementation of agricultural subsidy policies were investigated. The results show that: (1) Agricultural subsidy policy can effectively stimulate the increase of farmers'' input level in agricultural production factors, deeply stimulate and release agricultural productivity; (2) Agricultural subsidy policies can effectively guarantee the basic operating income of farmers and significantly increase the disposable transfer net income of farmers, which plays an important role in guaranteeing the basic total income of farmers; (3) Market support price policies such as minimum purchase price and temporary purchase and storage will stimulate the price of agricultural products to rise, which is not conducive to the adjustment of the imbalance of agricultural planting structure.