| 面向售后服务的汽车备品需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 窦国伟,薛念文. 面向售后服务的汽车备品需求预测研究[J]. 物流科技, 2005, 28(10): 4-7 |
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| 作者姓名： | 窦国伟 薛念文 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏大学,江苏,镇江,212013 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据面向售后服务的汽车备品需求特点的差异,本文将其分为专用配件和通用配件并分别选用不同的预测模型.对专用配件,采用基于时间序列相关的线性回归模型,并运用加权最小二乘法（WLS）估计参数.对通用配件,选用GM（1,1）模型进行需求预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 汽车备品 需求预测 回归预测 灰色系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-3100（2005）10-0004-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-04-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-25 |
Study on Demand Forecast of Automobile Spare-part for After Service |
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| DOU Guo-wei,XUE Nian-wen. Study on Demand Forecast of Automobile Spare-part for After Service[J]. Logistics Management, 2005, 28(10): 4-7 |
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| Authors: | DOU Guo-wei XUE Nian-wen |
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| Affiliation: | Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of their demand features, this paper divides automobile spare-part into special fittings and common ones, then selects different forecast, models. For special fittings demand, linear regression forecast model based on correlation of time series is selected and makes use of Weighted Least Square to estimate parameters. Demand forecast of common fittings comes true via CM (1,1) of grey system. |
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| Keywords: | automobile spare-part demand forecast regrcssion prediction grey ststem |
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