基于因子分析的中国资本流入变动研究

本文采集了1997～2008年间9个相关宏观经济变量、金融变量、政策变量的年度数据，运用因子分析方法研究发现，中国资本流入变动的主要影响因素为内部经济因素、汇率因素和外部因素，并且分析了在不同时期各个因素对中国资本流入所产生的作用以及它们的综合作用。从因子综合得分来看，在亚洲金融危机之后，中国资本流入受到上述三因素的正向影响，这主要是由中国经济的内部因素所决定的，同时我国汇率制度改革及外部经济因素变化产生的正向冲击也对中国的资本流入起到了一定的推动作用。

Factor Analysis on China's Capital Inflow Fluctuations

The paper collects the yearly data of nine relevant macroeconomic variables,financial variables,and policy variables during 1997 and 2008,and utilizes factor analysis method to find out that the major factors influencing China's capital inflow fluctuations are internal economic factor,exchange rate factor,and external factor.In addition,the paper analyzes the various influences by each of the three factors on China's capital inflow during different periods.As viewed from the composite scores of each factor,...