中国大陆省市经济增长收敛性的空间计量经济分析

基于中国大陆29个省市的面板经济数据,建立空间计量经济学模型,实证研究中国省市经济的收敛性.结果表明,在1994-2004年期间,中国大陆省市经济存在着显著的条件收敛现象;以1998-1999年为界的分两时段考察进一步发现,前一时段的收敛速度远快于后一时段的收敛速度;对控制变量的分析表明,教育、就业水平和非国有率有效地推动地区经济的增长,而第一产业人口比重则对地区经济产生阻碍.

Spatial Econometric Analysis on Provincial Economic Growth Convergence of China

The empirical results show that there exists marked conditional convergence among China's provinces from 1994 to 2004.Under dividing the whole period into two parts,the further research explores that the convergence speed of the previous period seems faster than that of the later period.After analyzing the controlled variables,we can find that education,employment level and non-state own rate push the regional economy efficiently,while the rate of the first industry blocks the regional economy.