“三元悖论”与人民币汇率制度选择

“三元悖论”从宏观上揭示货币政策独立性、汇率稳定、资本自由流动三大金融目标之间的相互制衡关系, 是汇率制度选择问题的一个基本理论分析工具。我国现行的汇率制度实质上是钉住美元的固定汇率制,在金融进一步开放的背景下,其弊端日益凸现,改革现行的汇率制度势在必行。我国现实经济条件决定了我国汇率制度改革的近期目标只能是建立汇率目标区,长期目标则是建立浮动汇率制。

Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime and RMB Exchange Rate Regime Choice

Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime,from macro perspective,reveals the reciprocal counterbalance relation- ship of monetary policy independence,exchange rate stability and free capital flow,so it is a fundamental tool of analysis instrument of exchange rate regime choice.The existing exchange rate regime of China is in fact the Dollar pegged fixed exchange rate regime.Under China's more-open financial background,the Dollar pegged fixed exchange rate regime ex- poses its more and more defects,so the existing exchange rate regime reform is inevitable.The current economic situation determines that the short-term objective of China's exchange rate regime reform is to establish Exchange Rate Target Zone, while the long-term one is to establish a floating exchange rate regime.