住房保障与财富效应逆转——基于平滑转换回归方法的实证分析

本文采取非线性的平滑转换回归方法,对我国保障房供给影响财富效应的程度进行了研究,结果表明:保障房的供给会使得房地产价格的财富效应发生V型逆转,即当保障房供给处于低水平阶段时,房地产价格的财富效应为负向,房价上涨会抑制消费增加;当保障房供给处于高水平阶段时,房地产价格具有正向的财富效应,房价上涨促进消费增加。这说明存在一个保障房供给的最低门槛,只有跨越这个门槛,才能有利于发挥房地产价格的财富效应,进而促进消费。从对全国各省份的数据分析发现,西部地区的大部分省份已经跨越了保障房供给的最低门槛,而东部地区较多的省份,连续几年都低于这个门槛值。因此,应积极建立健全保障性安居工程的融资机制,合理协调好保障房与商品房用地之间的关系,进而促进消费。

Housing Security and Reversion of Wealth Effect:The Empirical Research Based on Smooth Transition Regression Method

This paper takes nonlinear smooth transition regression method to study the impact of the supply of public housing on housing wealth effect in China.The results show that:the supply of public housing will make the housing wealth effect reverse like occurrence of V-shaped.When the supply of public housing is at a low level stage,housing wealth effect is negative and increasing housing prices will reduce consumption.When the supply of public housing is at a high level stage,housing wealth effect is positive and rising house prices will help to promote consumption.This shows that there is a minimum threshold for the supply of public housing,and only beyond this threshold,it can contribute to playing housing wealth effect,thus promoting consumption.The result from analysis of various provinces of the country’s data shows that most provinces in the western region have been beyond the minimum threshold of the supply of public housing,but more eastern provinces for several years are below this threshold.Therefore,we should actively establish the financing mechanism for public housing project and reasonably coordinate the relationship between the land for public housing and for private housing to stimulate the consumption.