增值税“扩围”改革对行业税负变动的预期影响

增值税“扩围”改革将影响到各行业的流转税负担.利用投入产出表数据,测算增值税“扩围”改革对目前属于增值税征收范围的行业(即“增值税行业”)和目前属于营业税征收范围行业(即“营业税行业”)流转税税负变动的影响,结果显示:增值税行业的总体税负将有小幅下降,服务中间投入比率是影响各增值税行业减税效应大小的关键因素；各营业税行业的税负变化情况差异较大,商务服务业等大多数行业的税负将减轻,但租赁业等部分行业的税负可能会加重,税改后的增值税税率水平选择与中间投入比率是影响各营业税行业税负变动的主要因素.为了促进行业间税负公平,减少增值税“扩围”改革对行业发展的不利影响,有必要适当降低租赁业、交通运输业的税率水平.

The Expected Effect of Extending VAT Tax Base Reform on Industry Tax Burden

Extending VAT tax base reform will affect the turnover tax burdens of various industries.Using input-output table data,the paper analyzes and computes the influences of extending VAT tax base reform on turnover tax burdens of value-added tax industries(industries imposed value-added tax currently) and business tax industries(industries imposed business tax currently) respectively.The results show that firstly,the overall tax burden of value-added tax industry will have a small decline and the service intermediate input ratio is the key factor determining the scale of tax reduction effect;secondly,tax burdens of various business tax industries differ a lot with most industries enjoying tax reductions including business services industry while some industries suffering tax increase such as rental industry,and the choice of value-added tax rate for reform industries and the intermediate input ratio will determine the tax burden change of business services industry.In order to promote fair tax burden between industries and reduce the negative effect of extending VAT tax base reform on industry development,it is necessary to reduce the tax rate of rental industry and transportation industry to some extent.