交通住房政策效应与生产和人口的过度集中

通过构建资本与人口流动模型,本文研究发现,在存在大量失业人员的条件下,政府出台改善大城市交通住房条件的单一政策,或者对大城市的倾斜性投资政策,将促使大城市生产和人口进一步集中,交通成本和住房价格进一步上升,而厂商和工人的福利并没有改善,即改善交通住房条件的单一政策或倾斜性投资政策具有无效性。这种政策可能导致虚假繁荣,即GDP上升,但大量社会产出被交通住房成本的进一步上升所抵消,除土地所有者外,绝大多数人的实际收入和福利没有改变。为避免交通住房等政策的无效性,应当采取多种其它政策相配合。

The Ineffective of Public Policies and Excessive Concentration of Production and Population

Through a model of the flow of capital and population,it is found that without investment control and with the flow of population,policies of reducing the costs of commuting and housing,or favorable policies only for large cities will result in even more excessive concentration,higher cost of commuting and housing.However,the policies may cause false prosperity,that is nominal GDP go up,but a lot of social product is offset by the cost of commuting and housing,the real income and welfare of most people don'...