| 新冠肺炎疫情对我国社会消费品零售总额的影响程度评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨扬,杨桂元. 新冠肺炎疫情对我国社会消费品零售总额的影响程度评价[J]. 价值工程, 2020, 39(18): 31-33 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨扬 杨桂元 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽财经大学财务处,蚌埠233030;安徽财经大学数量经济研究所,蚌埠233030 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文选择我国社会消费品零售总额月度数据为研究对象,首先建立多元线性回归模型和季节波动预测模型,在此基础上建立以误差平方和最小为最优准则的诱导有序加权算术平均组合预测模型,对2020年1-2月份我国社会消费品零售总额进行预测。预测结果表明:受新冠肺炎疫情的影响,2020年1-2月份我国社会消费品零售总额比正常情况下下降了25.64%。
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| 关 键 词： | 新冠肺炎疫情 社会消费品零售总额 IOWA 组合预测模型 预测精度 |
Evaluation of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in China |
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| YANG Yang,YANG Gui-yuan. Evaluation of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in China[J]. Value Engineering, 2020, 39(18): 31-33 |
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| Authors: | YANG Yang YANG Gui-yuan |
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| Affiliation: | (Department of Finance,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;Institute for Quantitative&Economic Research,Anhui University of Finance&Economic,Bengbu 233030,China) |
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| Abstract: | This article selects the monthly data of China's total retail sales of consumer goods as the research object,establishes a multiple linear regression model and a seasonal fluctuation prediction model,on this basis,establishes an induced ordered weighted average combination prediction model that uses the minimum error sum of squares as the optimal criterion to predict the total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to February of 2020.The forecast results show that,due to the impact of COVID-19,the total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to February of 2020 decreased by 25.64%compared with normal conditions. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 total retail sales of consumer goods IOWA combined prediction model forecast accuracy |
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