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Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Authors:Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Affiliation:Complutense Institute for International Studies, University Complutense of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Abstract:Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.
Keywords:Inflation  real economic growth  unemployment  expectations  euro area
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