Housing and the Weather

Monthly readings on housing construction and sales that are at odds with expectations are often attributed to unusual weather conditions. This paper examines the empirical relationship between weather abnormalities and housing activity. The conclusion is that unseasonable weather patterns have, at most, a slight impact on total housing starts, home sales, and the pace of construction activity. Even this weak effect is found only during the winter months. Sampling error accounts for much more of the month-to-month changes in measured housing activity than does the weather, and there is a general tendency to exaggerate the influence of unusual weather on the monthly national housing data.