CEPA对广东货物贸易影响的实证研究

观测CEPA实施4年来香港和广东贸易流量变化,运用引力模型研究广东和香港贸易流量的影响因素,并对CEPA实施后区内贸易创造和贸易转移效应进行实证分析.研究得出CEPA的建立在货物贸易方面并未对广东产生明显影响.原因一方面在于CEPA的优惠贸易安排主要针对香港原产地产品,对于内地货物贸易影响很小,更积极的意义在于服务贸易和投资等领域;另一方面香港的转口贸易所占比重相当大,这在一定程度上影响了自由贸易区功能的发挥.

An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of CEPA on Guangdong's Goods Trade

This paper, on the basis of observing the changes of trade flow between Hong Kong and Guangdong during the 4 years period of CEPA implementation, studies the influence factors for trade flow between the two places by means of gravity model, and makes an empirical analysis of the effect of trade creation and trade diversion in the area. The conclusion points out that CEPA does not produce obvious effects on the goods trade in Guangdong. One cause is that CEPA aims at the original products of Hong Kong, and its more active significance lies in such fields as service trade and investment; another is that the carrying trade of Hong Kong limits the effects of CEPA to some extent.