Assessment of model uncertainty in destinations and travel forecasts of models of complex spatial shopping behaviour |
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| Authors: | Soora Rasouli Harry Timmermans |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Business, Central Washington University, 20000 68th Avenue W, Lynnwood, WA 98036, USA;2. Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, 721 University Avenue, Syracuse, NY 13244-2450, USA;1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China;1. Department of Marketing, Spears School of Business, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA;2. Department of Marketing & Management, College of Business & Entrepreneurship, Texas A&M University, Commerce, TX 75428, USA;1. Kansas State University, College of Business, 201A Calvin Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506-0506, USA;2. 821 Academic Way, Tallahassee, FL 32306-1110, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper reports the results of an analysis of model uncertainty in the context of shopping behaviour. This analysis is positioned in a discussion on the evolution of models of spatial shopping behaviour. For different generations of shopping models, the potential of uncertainty analysis is discussed. The actual analysis is based on an application of the Albatross model to the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Characteristic of this model is that shopping trips are embedded in the prediction of daily more comprehensive activity-travel patterns, adding complexity and realism to traditional models of spatial shopping behaviour, such as the Huff and spatial interaction model. Results show that overall the uncertainty associated with the aggregate outcomes of the model is small. It is higher for the total number of visits to selected shopping areas. |
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