产业结构变动、技术进步与低碳经济发展:以广东省为例

本文基于碳排放强度的视角,运用转换份额分析法,将结构变动和技术进步从碳排放强度变化率中分解出来,实证度量了广东省产业结构变动和技术进步对低碳经济发展的影响。结果表明:1999年以来技术进步是决定广东省碳排放强度变化的关键因素,而产业结构变动对碳排放强度变化的影响作用较小;从产业部门看,工业部门对整体经济碳排放强度变化的作用最大。因此,在优化产业行业结构中,支持重点产业行业的节能减排技术进步,进一步降低二氧化碳排放强度,是广东未来实现低碳经济发展的关键。

Structural Change,Technology Progress and Low-carbon Economic Development:A Case Study of GuangDong Province

From an angle of carbon emission strength,this paper uses shift - share analysis method to decompose structural changes and technology progress from carbon emission strength changing rate,measuring the effects of structural changes and technology progress on low - carbon economic development Results show: technology progress is the critical factor in deciding the carbon emission strength changing in GuangDong province, while structure changes effect is small.Industrial sector contributes more to the changes of carbon emission strength,comparing with other industries.So adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure,supporting technology progress in energy conversation and emission reduction is the critical chain of GuangDong’s low-carbon economic development in future.