Competing models of international lending activity |
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| Authors: | Bruno S Frey Friedrich Schneider |
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| Institution: | 1. Breast Center, IMO Clinique de Genolier, Switzerland;2. Department of Internal Medicine IV, Hematology/Oncology, Martin-Luther-University Halle/Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle/Saale, Germany;3. Jacobi Medical Center, 1400 Pelham Parkway South Building 1, Room 3N20, Bronx, NY 10461, USA;4. Corporate Clinical Development, Helsinn Healthcare SA, PO Box 357, 6915 Pambio-Noranco, Lugano, Switzerland;5. Corporate Drug Safety, Helsinn Healthcare SA, PO Box 357, 6915 Pambio-Noranco, Lugano, Switzerland;6. Federal State Institution, Privolzhsky District Medical Center, Federal Medical-Biological Agency of Russia, Urology Department #2, Nizhny Novgorod 603001, Russian Federation;7. St. Petersburg Clinical Oncology Dispensary, 3/5 Nizhne-Volzhskaya Nab, Nizhny Novgorod 603001, Russia;8. Department of Supportive Oncology, Institute for Oncology and Radiology of Serbia, Pasterova 14, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia;9. Lahey Hospital & Medical Center, 41 Mall Road, Burlington, MA 01805, USA |
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| Abstract: | Four competing models of the World Bank's lending to developing countries are constructed and econometrically estimated by pooled time series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that a model combining economic and political determinants performs best. Besides per capita income, inflation, balance of payment and budget deficit, external debt and past growth, political determinants such as the ‘capitalist’ climate or political instability are also important, as well as a recipient country's former status as a colony or dominion. This politico-economic-model is successfully used to forecast the distribution of IBRD loans and IDA credits among the developing countries. |
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