农村工业化还能走多远?

基于1987年到2008年28个省的面板数据,本文发现:无论是以就业人数还是以总产值来度量,乡镇企业规模的扩大都显著地缩小了城乡收入差距。通过雇佣农村富余劳动力以及生产的工业品在城乡间的自由流动,乡镇企业的发展抵补了一部分由于劳动力流动限制而造成的社会福利的损失。然而,本文更为重要的发现是:与其利润率的变化趋势一致,乡镇企业缩小城乡收入差距的年度作用递减;并且,在1998年之后,其作用的估计值在零附近一个很小的区域内摆动。这说明城乡间的产品流动对于生产要素流动不充分的补偿作用可能已经发挥到了极致——在我国高度竞争的工业品市场上,位于农村的工业企业是没有优势的,因为它们缺乏城市工业的规模经济与集聚效应。本文的政策含义是:只有改革现有户籍制度、加强劳动力在城乡间的流动、培育完善的要素市场,而非继续鼓励农村工业化,才能进一步缩小城乡收入差距,并最终消除城乡二元结构。

Can Rural Industrialization Keep Working in China?

Using data of 28 China's provinces during the period of 1987—2008,this paper studies effect of Township-and-Village Enterprises'(TVEs') development in reducing China's urban-rural income inequality.A significantly positive effect is found,which supports the idea that,through the movement of its productions,TVEs can compensate partly for the welfare losses caused by Hukou restrictions on the movement of labor force between rural areas and urban areas.However,a more important finding is,the yearly effects are decreasing,with very small values after the year 1998.This result suggests that TVEs' compensation effects may have already been fully utilized.This is due to significant disadvantages of factories located in rural areas on the highly competitive China's manufacturing product markets.The policy implication of this paper is,only by reforming the current Hukou system and strengthening the movement of labor and other factors,rather than by furthering rural industrialization,can China finally reduce its urban-rural income inequality.