析我国外汇占款对冲策略

根据我国的经济运行情况,分析固定汇率、资本流动与货币政策自主的“三元困境”在我国的具体表现。指出在经常项目和资本项目持续顺差的情况下,货币政策与外汇储备增长的矛盾。说明为控制流通中的货币而被动进行的单向对冲操作的成本昂贵,并且是以牺牲货币政策自主为代价的,还易积蕴金融风险,酿致恶性后果。证实了外汇占款对冲策略的不可持久性,为此必须改革现行的固定汇率制度,并放松资本管制。

Analysis on Currency Sterilization Relating to Foreign Exchange Increase in Our Country

We analyze the paradox of fixed foreign exchange rate, capital f low and monetary policy discretion in China economy in this paper, and point out the dilemma between monetary policy and foreign exchange increase on condition of continuous trade surplus and foreign capital pouring, demonstrate that steril ized intervention is costly and at the cost of independent monetary policy. Furt hermore, it piles up financial risk and can lead to money shock or financial cri sis, which signifies the sterilization policy can not sustain in long-run, so it is pressing to reform the current foreign exchange system and loose capital reg ulation.