基于复杂自适应供应网络脆弱性的突发风险研究

本文将全球化背景下的供应链系统视为复杂自适应供应网络，以复杂自适应供应网络脆弱性分析为视角，对当前供应链突发风险管理这个热点问题展开了研究，采用微观与宏观相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法对突发风险进行了分析，建立了突发事件条件下复杂自适应供应网络的脆弱性评价模型，并结合具体实例进行了验证。结果表明，供应链突发风险管理策略应该尽可能使得供应链各子系统脆弱性以及子系统各脆弱性因素之间的相互影响保持均衡，不存在相对脆弱的短板。这为企业从全局考虑改善供应链系统性能提供了的最佳途径。

Complex Adaptive Supply Network based on the research on the vulnerability of the risk of sudden

Supply Chains are regard as Complex Adaptive Supply Networks in this paper according to complex network theory and complex adaptive system. The paper analyzes the disruption risk of Complex Adaptive Supply Network from the perspective on brittleness, and presents a model by both macroscopic and microcosmic methods and combining qualitative and quantitative analysis for the brittleness evaluation in case of an uncertain event like snow disaster in 2008.