| 铁路货运量预测过程中的关键技术分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 高醒,李夏苗,彭鹏.铁路货运量预测过程中的关键技术分析[J].科技和产业,2018(5):1-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高醒 李夏苗 彭鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学 交通运输工程学院， 长沙 410075,中南大学 交通运输工程学院， 长沙 410075,中南大学 交通运输工程学院， 长沙 410075 |
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| 摘 要： | 可靠的铁路货运量预测对铁路部门计划、建设、运营等决策具有重要意义。主要影响因素筛选、预测方法选取等是预测过程中的关键技术问题，对预测质量有重要影响。基于已有研究成果，首先分析了预测机理，探讨了影响因素的界定方法；接着提出了主要影响因素的识别原则和策略；然后归纳出各主要预测方法的优缺点；最后给出相关建议，以期更加科学合理地预测铁路货运量。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路货运量 预测 关键技术 预测方法 建议 |
Key Technology Analysis in the Process of Forecasting Railway Freight Volumes |
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| Abstract: | Reliable forecast of railway freight volumes is significant for railway transport department to make decision such as planning, construction and operation. The selection of main influence factors and forecast methods are the key technical issues in the process of forecasting railway freight volumes, it has important influence on the prediction quality. Based on relevant predicting outcomes of railway freight volumes, this paper firstly analyzes the mechanism of railway freight volumes and discusses the definition method of influencing factors. Then, recognition principles and strategies of key influencing factors are proposed. It also analyzes the pros and cons of the main forecast method. Finally, several suggestions were given in order to forecast the railway freight volumes more scientifically. |
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| Keywords: | railway freight volumes forecasting key technology forecasting method suggestions |
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