预期寿命对中国养老保险支出的影响效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

利用1995—2014年我国31个省份的省级面板数据实证检验了预期寿命延长对我国养老金支出的影响效应。结果发现：人口平均预期寿命对我国养老金支出水平具有显著的正向影响。实证结果显示：研究样本期间内人口平均预期寿命的增加导致了我国养老金支出水平增加了0.94个百分点，对养老金支出水平增加的贡献度高达76%，成为了我国养老金支出增加的主导因素。随着我国人口预期寿命延长模式逐渐进入到以老年人口死亡率下降为主导，这种人口增龄效应对养老金支出的影响还会进一步增强和深入，在未来养老保险制度改革优化过程中需对预期寿命这一因素加以重点关注。

Research on the Impact of Life Expectancy on Public Pension Expenditure in China

Through collecting a provincial panel data of China''s 31 provinces during 1995-2014, this paper studies the impact of life expectancy on China''s public pension expenditure. The results indicate that life expectancy has significant positive impact on public pension expenditure in China. According to the result of the empirical study, in the sample period, for the growth of the level of public pension expenditure, there were 0.94 percentage points resulted from the increase of the life expectancy, contributing to 76% of the total growth of the level of public pension expenditure. Along with the transition of the increasing of China''s life expectancy from the declining of the old population death rate to dominate, the impact of the life expectancy on China''s public pension expenditure will be improved.