The CPSC's ATV risk model

Evaluations of the Consumer Product Safety Commission's impact on safety have been generally unfavorable. The CPSC's questionable effectiveness may be because many of its actions have been based on erroneous assessments of the factors associated with accident risk. This paper analyzes the statistical underpinnings of the CPSC's regulatory approach to all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), one of the most prominent issues faced by the agency. By investigating a wider range of risk models, we find the principal provisions of the CPSC's ATV policy, most notably stopping the sale of new three-wheel ATVs, are not supported by the risk data.We acknowledge with gratitude the helpful comments of Robert Trost, Kip Viscusi, and the referees, and the assistance of Monica Bettendorf and Chung-Shing Lee. The usual disclaimer applies.