基于空间面板杜宾模型的农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系研究

长期以来,农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的关系受到国内外众多学者的关注。文章基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,考虑到空间溢出效应,将资本因素划分为农村金融发展的规模、效率和结构3个纬度,结合劳动力投入量,通过构建前沿的计量经济学空间面板Durbin模型,对我国30个省市2000~2009年农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系进行了分析。结果表明,在样本期间,我国农村经济增长存在显著的空间集聚现象;农村金融规模、效率、结构与农村经济增长之间存在显著的相关关系,其中,农村金融规模和农村金融结构对农村经济存在反向作用,而农村金融效率对农村经济具有显著而正向的直接影响且存在正向空间溢出效应,成为影响农村经济增长的关键因素。农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的良好互动机制尚未建立。因此,各省市在加大农村金融投资规模的同时,要努力提高农村金融资源配置效率。

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN RURAL FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND RURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON SPATIAL PANEL DURBIN MODEL

At the present, China′s economy has went into a new normal, but the economic growth is experiencing a slowdown. At this background, since rural economy has a broad market space and large consumer groups, it has gradually become the backbone of China′s rapid economic growth in the future. However, rural economic growth needs the support of financial capita to drive rural economic growth. Due to the wide geographical area and the dif-ferent rural economic development level in various provinces and cities, the geographical space is one of the impor-tant factors that affect the rural financial development and economic growth. Based on Cobb-Douglas production function, considering the spatial spillover effects, this paper divided the development of the rural financial capital into three aspects, i. e. , scale, efficiency and structure. And then, it analyzed the relationship between rural fi-nancial development and economic growth of rural in 30 provinces from 2000 to 2009 by spatial panel model, Durbin frontier of econometrics. The results showed that the rural economy was highly spatially clustered;Rural fi-nancial scale and rural financial structure presented a significantly negative effect on rural GDP. However, the effi-ciency of rural finance had positive effect and significant positive spillover effect, which become one of the key fac-tors affecting rural GDP. The interactive mechanism between rural financial development and rural economic growth had not yet been established. Therefore, while increasing the rural financial investment, it should make efforts to improve the allocation efficiency of rural financial resources.