以技术动力学视角看电动汽车的发展前景

在目前能源短缺、环境污染严重、节能减排的巨大压力下,先进的电动汽车技术成为人们关注的热点.基于技术动力学的一般规律,针对电动汽车发展涉及的电池技术发展、充电基础设施及其与电动汽车的协调等问题,对电动汽车作为新生事物具有的学习效应、网络与路径依赖以及其中的不确定性、技术路线与政府的角色等方面进行了分析,可为电动汽车发展战略与政策的制定提供参考.

Prospect of Electric Vehicle in China from the Perspective of Technology Dynamics

Under the background of energy scarcity, severe environment pollution and potential irreversible hazard from global climate change, advanced electric vehicles have attracted great attentions. Based on the ＂stylized facts＂ of technology dynamics, and according to the issues, including technology advancement of battery, charging infrastructures, and the development coordination between charging infrastructures and vehicles, the paper analyzed the learning effects of new technology, network and path dependence and the inherent uncertainty, and technology route and the role of the government for electric vehicles. The results can provide a reference for the development strategy and policy-making on electric vehicles.