基于序号总和理论的御河大桥交通量预测研究

为了评价公路网设计的可靠性,提高交通量预测的精确度,以交通工程的基本理论为指导,在大量调查数据的基础上,运用时间序列法的线性、二项式、指数等方法进行交通量预测,得到了相应的预测模型,通过序号总和理论得到了精确度较高的预测模型,并通过预测模型计算出未来特征年的交通量,为交通量的预测研究提供了一种新的研究思路。

Study on Traffic Volume Forecasting of Imperial River Bridge Based on the Theory of Serial Number Summation

In order to evaluate the reliability of road network design,improve the accuracy of traffic volume forecasting,with the guidance of basic traffic engineering theory,based on a large number of survey data,the paper conducts traffic volume forecasting using linear,binomial,exponential time series and other methods,obtains the corresponding prediction model,gets prediction model with higher accuracy by means of using the theory of serial number summation,and calculates traffic volume of future characteristic year through prediction,which provides a new research ideas for the study of on traffic volume forecasting.