| 我国区域经济波动的关联性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋满元. 我国区域经济波动的关联性分析[J]. 新疆财经学院学报, 2008, 0(3): 5-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋满元 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西财经学院,广西南宁530003 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西高校优秀人才资助计划项目，国家社会科学基金，广西财经学院科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据所进行的有关计量分析，在研究我国经济总量波动的区域特征以及区域经济波动的关联性问题时，不难得出如下几个方面的基本结论：区域间经济波动的内在关联性增强，但同步性却是减弱的；20世纪90年代前后国内中西部地区与东部地区经济波动的先行地位有着明显的轮替变化；与此同时，全国和各区域经济波动的周期长度延长，波动强度显著下降，且周期扩张动力显著增强。此外，各区域经济波动形态呈同化趋势，区域间周期扩张动力差异的扩大趋势也十分明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域经济波动 经济周期扩张动力 内在关联性 格兰杰因果关系 |
Relevancy Analysis of Regional Economic Fluctuation in China |
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| JIANG Man-Yuan. Relevancy Analysis of Regional Economic Fluctuation in China[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Finance & Economy Institute, 2008, 0(3): 5-11 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Man-Yuan |
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| Affiliation: | JIANG Man - Yuan ( Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530003, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to related quantitative analysis,when regional features of gross economic fluctuation and relevancy of regional economic fluctuation in China were studied,some conclusions would be drawn as follows: the internal relevancy of regional economic fluctuation was strengthened but synchronism was weakened;the proceeding position of economic fluctuation in Midwestern and Eastern China varied alternatively in 1990s.Meanwhile,period length of economic fluctuation nationwide and every region was prolonged,fluctuation intensity declined,and periodic extension driver was strengthened.Besides,economic fluctuation showed assimilative trend in every region and discrepancies in periodic extension driver among different regions tends to be increasing. |
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| Keywords: | regional economic fluctuation extension driver of economic circle internal relevancy Granger causality |
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