基于 DEA 模型和 Malmquist指数的农业生产效率评价研究——以吉林省为例

基于农业投入、产出视角，分别从纵向和横向层面入手，利用 DEA 模型对 2004—2017 年吉林省及 2017 年吉林省 9 个地市的农业生产效率进行测算，采用投影分析和 Malmquist 指数对吉林省的农业生产水平进行评价研究，以此测算吉林省及其 9个地市的农业生产效率，为吉林省实现农业现代化发展提供理论参考。研究发现，在纵向层面，2004—2017 年吉林省整体农业生产效率较高，较多年份达到 DEA 有效，但仍有提升空间，动态观测表明，全省技术进步率较低，制约全要素生产率的提高；在横向层面，2017 年吉林省 9 个地市的综合技术效率整体较高，但区域差距明显；总体来看，DEA 无效的主要原因在于地区差异大、技术和规模效益没有充分发挥。通过投影分析发现，各地市在播种面积、农业机械总动力、农林牧事务支出投入中都存在不同程度的冗余量，投入资源未曾有效利用，存在浪费情况。为此，政府应实施全面性的农业生产现代化战略、差异性的农业生产区域化策略和统筹性的农业生产高效化策略。

The Historical Investigation And Road Exploration of The Transformation of Important Social Development Stage Since The Establishment of The New China

The relationship between the social production and people''s needs is a concentrated embodiment that MAKESI''s historical materialism as a philosophical methodology is used to analyze the major social contradictions. Through the historical investigation of the transformation of the main social development stage since the establishment of the New China, it is found that,Every main contradiction of society is proposed and judged not only on the special background and realistic basis of the time, but also on the common and regular content as the inner support and basis. In China''s three important social development stages, the rational way of defining and transforming major contradictions is that social production is the basis of understanding major social contradictions, people''s living needs are the key to understanding major social contradictions, and the change of supply and demand relationship between social production and people''s needs is the foundation of transforming major social contradictions.Whether we can accurately grasp the important stage of social development, the expression and transformation of major contradictions, has become a fundamental issue concerning the success or failure of the socialist construction with Chinese characteristics and the ruling strategy of the Communist Party of China.