基于DEA-Malmquist指数和Tobit模型的长江经济带水资源福利绩效及影响因素

在构建水资源福利绩效指标体系的基础上,采用投入导向型的超效率DEA-CCR模型,测算了2008—2017年长江经济带11个省市的水资源福利绩效;利用Malmquist指数对水资源福利绩效进行解构,测算各驱动因素的贡献率,并采用面板Tobit回归模型检验长江经济带水资源福利绩效的影响因素。研究结果表明:2008—2017年,长江经济带水资源福利绩效处于有效状态,技术进步与创新是推动水资源福利绩效提高的主要因素;地区间差异呈"东部最高、中部次之、西部最低"的态势;产业结构、经济外向性、城市绿化、技术进步、政府环境规制效果对长江经济带水资源福利绩效均有一定影响,但是各因素影响方向、影响力度与显著性存在差异。

Welfare performance and influence factors of Yangtze River Economic Zone based on DEA-Malmquist index and TOBIT model

Based on the establishment of welfare performance index system of water resources, the input-oriented super-efficiency DEA-CCR model is used to measure the welfare performance of water resources of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2008 to 2017, and then the Malmquist index is used to deconstruct the welfare performance of water resources and the contribution rate of each driving factor is calculated. Finally, the panel Tobit model is used to test the influence factors of welfare performance of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results show that the welfare performance of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is in an effective state from 2008 to 2017, and the technological progress and innovation are the main factors to promote the improvement of welfare performance of water resources. The regional differences are the highest in the east, the second in the middle and the lowest in the west. The industrial structure, economic extroversion, urban greening, technological progress and the effect of government environmental regulation all have a certain influence on the welfare performance of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, but there still are differences in the direction, strength and significance of each factor.