脚手架中人为错误发生规律的数学模型及其在人因可靠度分析中的应用

人为错误是脚手架坍塌的主要因素.分析此类人为错误的特点,将其分为结构性错误和参数性错误两类,给出基于现场调查数据的初始人为错误发生率的计算方法和错误大小的概率模型,提出改进的证据融合方法,给出错误保有率的区间模型及其计算公式,建立扣件式脚手架中人为错误的数学模型.基于上述数学模型,给出人因可靠度的区间分析方法,为研究脚手架的安全性提供理论基础.

The Mathematical Model of Human Error Occurrence in Scaffolding and Its Application in Human Reliability Analysis

Human error is the main factor in the collapse of scaffolding. The characteristics of such human errors and divides them into structural errors and parametric errors was analyzed. The calculation method and calculation method of initial human error incidence based on field survey data are given. Probabilistic model of error size, an improved evidence fusion method is proposed, an interval model of error retention rate and its calculation formula are given, and a mathematical model of human error in fastener-type scaffolding is established. Based on the above mathematical model, an interval analysis method of human factor reliability is given, which provides a theoretical basis for studying the safety of scaffolding.