甘肃省房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响研究

本文在对甘肃省房地产价格波动及区域金融稳定概念进行界定的基础上,分析了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响机制,选取了甘肃省2002年至2011年的相关数据,构建了甘肃省区域金融稳定指标体系,并用熵值法计算出区域金融稳定综合指数,然后建立VAR模型,实证检验了房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响.研究发现：在最优滞后2期内,房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定产生一定的影响,并且二者之间呈现负相关关系,也即房地产价格波动越大,区域金融稳定性就会降低,房地产价格波动越小区域金融稳定状况越好.

Research on the Influence of Real Estate Price Fluctuations on the Regional Financial Stability of Gansu Province

On the base of defining the concept of the real estate price fluctuation and the regional financial sta- bility, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of real estate price fluctuation to regional financial stability by selecting the relevant data from 2002 to 2011, and construct the regional financial stability index system of Gansu Province, and calculates the regional financial stability index by entropy method, then set up VAR model, empiri- cal test the impact of real estate price fluctuations on the regional financial stability. The research found that in the optimal lag 2 period, the real estate price fluctuations have a certain impact on the regional financial stability, and there exist negatively related between the two. Namely, if the real estate price fluctuation is big, it will reduce the stability of regional financial, if the real estate price fluctuation is small, the stability of regional financial will be better.