Intervention analysis of SARS on Japanese tourism demand for Taiwan |
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| Authors: | Jennifer C H Min Christine Lim Hsien-Hung Kung |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hamburg, Germany;(2) Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland;(3) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(4) Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Japan was Asia’s leading generator of international tourism in the 1980s and 1990s. Japanese tourists make up over 30% of
all international tourists to Taiwan and they have been the highest ranking tourist source market since the early stages of
the island’s tourism development in the 1970s. However, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, the
most catastrophic disaster in the past 100 years in Taiwan, had a huge impact on Japanese inbound tourism to the island. The
purpose of this study is to evaluate how Japanese inbound arrivals have been affected by the SARS outbreak. A SARIMA with
intervention model is used to assess the impact of the epidemic on inbound tourism from Japan to Taiwan in the aftermath of
the SARS outbreak. The empirical results indicated that inbound tourism from Japan was devastated by the crisis, particularly
during the first 5 months after the SARS outbreak. This study provides some helpful insight for the tourism industry to respond
to the impact of exogenous shock. |
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