随机利率下缴费预定计划职业年金的替代率研究

事业单位养老保险制度改革关系到我国基本养老保险制度的改革进程和可持续发展问题，而面对事业单位养老金替代率90％，企业单位替代率60％的差距，事业单位养老保险制度改革遇到了一定的阻力．本文考察了如果采用缴费预定计划（Dc计划）建立职业年金，事业单位养老保险的替代率问题．养老金的投资收益率是影响替代率的关键因素，而这一因素受金融市场影响较大，这里假设它为随机变量。研究发现：（1）由于女性职工的法定退休年龄早，平均寿命又比较长，对于相同的缴费率，男性的养老金替代率明显高于女性的替代率；（2）缴费率是影响替代率的另一因素，为了保持较为合理的替代率，实现养老保险制度的平稳改革，我们建议合适的缴费率为11%。

Research on the Replacement Ratio of Defined Contributed Occupational Pension Scheme under Stochastic Interest Rate

The reformation of non-profit institution endowment insurance system relates to the basic endowment insurance＇s reform process and its sustainable development. At present, the replacement ratio of non-profit institution is 90%, while the enterprise＇s is only 60%, the reformation encountered some resistance. This paper studied the replacement ratio of non-profit institution if there is a defined contribution plan to set up an occupational pension. The fund＇s return on investment is a key factor of the replacement ratio, and which is influenced a lot by the financial market, so we suppose it as a random variable. We found that： （1） Given the same payment, male＇s replacement is obviously higher than the female＇s, for the female＇s legal retirement age is lower and female＇s average lifetime is longer than the male＇ s. （2） The payment is another factor to influence the replacement ratio. Holding a reasonable replacement can help the reformation accomplished smoothly, we suggest the suitable payment of occupational pension is 11%.