土地供应管制、住房供给弹性与房价周期波动

研究目的:分析土地供应管制通过住房供给弹性渠道对房价周期波动的影响。研究方法:理论分析,计量检验。研究结果:(1)土地供应管制影响房价波动的渠道是:土地供应管制的宽松和收紧通过供地规模、用地成本以及市场预期影响住房供给弹性,再经由供求关系和投机效应的传导影响房价波动。(2)土地供应管制可以解释45%的城市间住房供给弹性差异;地方政府不同松紧程度的策略性供地行为导致住房供给弹性与城市经济发达程度负相关,中央偏向中西部的土地配额管制政策导致东部城市住房供给弹性低于中西部城市。(3)住房供给弹性决定了房价周期波动,并具有非对称性效应:在市场景气繁荣阶段,供给弹性越小,房价涨幅就越大;在市场不景气阶段,房价跌幅与供给弹性的关系存在方向上的不确定性。研究结论:土地和住房领域供给侧改革的一个重点是改革供地制度和调整供地政策,使土地供应与住房需求在时空维度上相匹配,将有利于熨平房价波动,降低市场风险。

Land Supply Regulation, Housing Supply Elasticity and Housing Price Fluctuation

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of land supply regulation on housing price fluctuation through housing supply elasticity. The methods employed include theoretical analysis and empirical approach. The results show that: 1)the easiness and tightness in land supply regulation leads to differences in housing supply elasticity via quantity of land supply, land price and market expectation, and subsequently influence housing price fluctuation through supply-demand relationship and speculation effect. 2)45% of variances in housing supply elasticity observed across cities can be attributed to land supply regulation. Strategic land supply behaviors of local governments lead to the negative correlation between housing supply elasticity and economic development. The central region-biased land quota policy enhances less supply elasticity in eastern cities than that in central and western cities. 3)Housing supply elasticity is found to be an important determinant of housing price fluctuation with an asymmetric effect. Cities with less elastic housing supply experience larger price increases during the housing boom while the qualitative relationship between supply elasticity and price decline in the post-boom period is ambiguous. In conclusion, one key supply-side reform in land and housing field is the reform on land supply regulation to make land supply match housing demand on both spatial and temporal dimensions, which can help smooth price fluctuation and decrease market risk.