土地资源错配与经济波动──基于中国地级市数据的实证分析

研究目的:分析土地资源错配对经济波动的影响。研究方法:在土地资源错配对经济波动影响的理论分析基础上,利用中国地级市数据,实证检验土地资源错配对经济波动的影响。研究结果:(1)短期来看,土地资源错配对经济波动有着显著的负向影响;长期来看,土地资源错配对经济波动有着显著的正向影响。(2)短期土地资源错配对经济波动的负向影响,主要通过降低密度边际波动与降低扩展边际波动来实现;长期对经济波动的正向影响,主要通过增大密度边际波动来实现。研究结论:虽然在短期土地资源错配能够稳定经济增长,减缓经济波动,但是从长期来看,土地资源错配会导致服务业发展滞后,不利于地区创新能力提升,从而降低经济的稳定性,容易引发经济波动。

Land Resource Misallocation and Economic Fluctuation: An Empirical Analysis based on Prefecture-level City Data in China

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of land resource misallocation on economic fluctuation. The research method employed is to empirical test the influence of land resource misallocation on economic fluctuation based on the theoretical analysis and the prefecture-level city data in China. The results show that: 1)land resource misallocation has a significant negative effect on economic fluctuation in the short term and has a significant positive effect in the long-term. 2)In the short term, the negative effect of land resource misallocation on economic fluctuation is mainly achieved by reducing the density marginal fluctuation and the extended marginal fluctuation, and in the long-term, the positive effect of land resource misallocation on economic fluctuation is mainly achieved by increasing the density marginal fluctuation. In conclusion, land resource misallocation can stabilize economic growth and slow down economic fluctuation in the short term, however, in the long-term, land resource misallocation will make service industry lag and be against the improvement of regional innovation capacity, thus reducing economic stability and leading to economic fluctuation.