基于空间计量模型的耕地利用转型对农业经济增长影响研究

研究目的:分析耕地利用显性转型和隐性转型各形态对湖南省农业经济增长的直接效应和溢出效应。研究方法:投影寻踪模型,空间自相关,空间计量模型。研究结果:(1)农业经济增长、耕地利用显性转型和隐性转型及各形态存在空间关联性;(2)耕地空间位置相邻性导致耕地利用转型各形态对农业经济增长不仅存在直接效应,还产生了影响相邻县域的溢出效应,即本县域农业经济增长1%,相邻县域农业经济将会增长0.28%;(3)耕地利用显性转型各形态对农业经济增长的直接效应和溢出效应高于隐性转型各形态,显性转型中耕地数量形态对农业经济增长的直接效应、溢出效应分别占到总效应的96.47%、34.97%。研究结论:应在合理配置各类生产要素的基础上,开展县域间耕地利用与管理等方面的合作,提升耕地利用转型各形态对本县域和邻近县域农业经济增长的促进作用。

Study on the Impact of Cultivated Land Use Transition on Agricultural Economic Growth based on Spatial Econometric Model

The purpose of this paper is to explore direct and spillover effects of dominant and recessive transition of cultivated land use on agricultural economic growth in Hunan Province. The method of this paper is to measure transition level and analysis of spatial correlation by using Projection Pursuit Model, and to analysis the direct and spillover effects of transition on agricultural economic growth by using Spatial Econometric Model. The results show that: 1) agricultural economic growth, dominant and recessive transition of cultivated land use and their forms present significant spatial correlation. 2) The neighboring of cultivated land spatial location leads to not only direct effects on agricultural economic growth, but also spillover effects on neighboring counties, and thereby the agricultural economy of the local county grows by 1% and that of the neighbouring counties will grow by 0.28%. 3) The direct and spillover effects of dominant transition of cultivated land use on agricultural economic growth are higher than those of recessive transition, and the direct effect and spillover effect of cultivated land quantity form in dominant transition accounted for 96.47% and 34.97% of the total effect, respectively. In conclusion, in order to augment the agricultural economic growth of local county and neighboring county by promoting the transformation of cultivated land use, cooperation in the utilization and management of cultivated land among counties should be carried out on the basis of rational allocation of various factors of production, so as to enhance the synergy of cultivated land utilization system.