| Is the Chinese Economy Moving in the Direction of Tertiarization？ |
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| 基金项目： | This research is funded by an National Natural Science Foundation of China project （No. 70773021）, a Shanghai Social Sciences project （2008BJL002, 2009XAE003）, Chinese Ministry of Education Key Projects （No. 2007JJD790118 and 2006JZD0018） and the Project of the ＂985＂ State Innovative Institute at Fudan University. |
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| 摘 要： | Drawing upon output, employment, consumption and trade data, this article examtnes whether there is an economic tertiarization trend in China ＇s economy and evaluates the common factors driving current trends. It shows that the tertiarization trend is evident for the overall economy and most regions in terms of the service nominal value-added ratio and service employment and consumption. However, the tertiarization trend is not significant in terms of the service real value-added ratio, and there is even some concurrent ＂detertiarization ＂ because of the decreasing proportion of services in imports and exports. lndeed, China ＇s tertiarization trend is far behind its industrialization trend The rise in the relative prices of services explains the rising proportion of household service consumption expenditure and further illuminates why the service real value-added ratio has not grown. The main cause for the growing percentage of service employment is the lag in service labor productivity growth in interaction with the price inelasticity of service demand ＂Cost disease ＂ has appeared in service consumption.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国经济 第三产业 消费支出 价值计算 服务业 劳动生产率 驱动因素 计算服务 |
Is the Chinese Economy Moving in the Direction of Tertiarization？ |
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| Dazhong Cheng Jean-Marc Blanchard. Is the Chinese Economy Moving in the Direction of Tertiarization？[J]. China & World Economy, 2009, 17(6): 88-105. DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01175.x |
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| Authors: | Dazhong Cheng Jean-Marc Blanchard |
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| Affiliation: | [1]Associate Professor, Department of International Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China [2]Associate Professor, Center for US-China Policy Studies, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, USA |
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| Abstract: | Drawing upon output, employment, consumption and trade data, this article examines whether there is an economic tertiarization trend in China 's economy and evaluates the common factors driving current trends. It shows that the tertiarization trend is evident for the overall economy and most regions in terms of the service nominal value‐added ratio and service employment and consumption. However, the tertiarization trend is not significant in terms of the service real value‐added ratio, and there is even some concurrent “detertiarization” because of the decreasing proportion of services in imports and exports. Indeed, China's tertiarization trend is far behind its industrialization trend. The rise in the relative prices of services explains the rising proportion of household service consumption expenditure and further illuminates why the service real value‐added ratio has not grown. The main cause for the growing percentage of service employment is the lag in service labor productivity growth in interaction with the price inelasticity of service demand. “Cost disease” has appeared in service consumption. |
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| Keywords: | Chinese economy service sector tertiarization |
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