新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响分析：长期视角与短期应对*

本文从需求和供给两侧分析了此次新冠疫情对我国经济的短期和长期影响。在需求侧，基于理论分析和非典疫情对经济的影响特征，经济总需求会随着此次疫情的结束而在短期内快速得到恢复。但此次疫情也会加大总需求和居民收入增速的下行压力。在供给侧，疫情不仅会降低劳动力资源配置效率，加剧劳动力供需结构矛盾，同时也大幅降低了我国的资本投资，在缺乏有效干预措施下，很可能加剧我国资本投资和经济总体增速的短期下滑趋势。而基于理论分析，相应供给冲击也将对我国长期产出带来增长压力。基于疫情对我国经济需求侧和供给侧的影响分析，2020年要实现全面建成小康社会的经济目标需要实施改革力度更大、更为有效的财政和货币等支持政策。

THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 EPIDEMIC ON CHINA'S ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS FROM THE SHORT TERM RESPONSE AND LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE

 This paper analyzes the short term and long term effects of the COVID 19 epidemic on China's economy from both the demand and the supply sides. On the demand side, based on theoretical analysis and the characteristics of the impact of the SARS epidemic on the economy, the total economic demand will recover in a short time with the end of the epidemic. But the epidemic will also exacerbate the downward trend in aggregate demand and household income. On the supply side, the epidemic will not only reduce the efficiency of labor resource allocation and aggravate the structural contradiction between labor supply and demand, but also significantly reduce China's capital investment. In the absence of economic intervention measures, it is likely to exacerbate the downward trend of China's capital investment and overall economic growth. Based on the theoretical analysis, the corresponding supply shock will also have a negative impact on China's long term output. Based on the impact of the epidemic on China's demand and supply sides, in order to achieve the economic goal of an overall well off society by 2020, more proactive fiscal and monetary policies need to be implemented.