长江经济带生态文明水平影响因素探析及预测--基于VAR、GWR-BP神经网络组合模型

文章基于长江经济带108个城市2005-2015连续11年面板数据,运用BP神经网络模型预测各地理单元2020年生态文明水平;引入VAR模型从内部维度探析三大子系统的相互作用与贡献度;采用GWR-BP神经网络组合模型探讨外部维度下影响因子的空间溢出效应及预测。研究发现:①2005-2020年,长江经济带生态文明水平的区域差异依然显著;长三角城市群核心区经济边际增量减少;长江中游城市群逐渐由三省会组成的增长极向外辐射扩散;成渝城市群经济环境矛盾突出,制约其生态文明建设。②经济社会发展(ECO)对生态环境保护(ENV)和资源环境状况(RES)的冲击呈现出环境库兹涅茨曲线的变化趋势;生态环境保护(ENV)和资源环境状况(RES)对自身冲击的响应灵敏性不高,归因于长期污染物的累积;生态环境保护(ENV)与资源环境状况(RES)互相冲击出现了正对立的响应步调;生态环境保护(ENV)的变化很大程度上依赖于经济社会发展(ECO)。③净初级生产力、经济密度和人均道路面积对生态文明水平呈正向影响,山体高程与生态文明关系由负相关向正相关逐年演进;经济和交通刺激对生态文明的边际作用明显降低,一定地势条件与良好资源禀赋将有助于山地资源的正向转换。

Influence Factor and Prediction of Ecological Civilization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt:Var and BP-GWR Neural Network Combination Model Based

This paper is based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River economic belt for 11 consecutive years in 2005-2015 years,BP neural network model was used to predict the ecological civilization of each geographical unit in2020;The VAR model is introduced to analyze the interaction and contribution between the three subsystems from the internal dimension;Besides,we further introduced the spatial spillover effects of the influencing factors under external dimension by BP-GWR neural network combination model.The study found:1)From 2005 to 2020,regional differences in the ecological civilization of the Yangtze River Economic belt remain remarkable;The core area of the Yangtze River Delta marginal increment of economy decreased;It gradually radiates outwards instead of the growth pole consisting of three provincial capitals in the urban agglomeration on the middle reaches of the Yangtze River;The contradiction between economy and environment is outstanding in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration,result in being restricted the construction of ecological civilization.2)The impact of ECO on ENV and RES showed the trend of Environmental Kuznets Curve;The sensitivity of ENV and RES impacting on themselves is not high,attributed to the accumulation of long-term pollutants;There was an opposite response on the mutual impact between ENV and RES;the changes in ENV are largely dependent on ECO.3)The relationship between the altitude and the ecological civilization evolves from negative correlation to positive correlation,while NPP,economic density and per capita road area are positively related to the contribution of green development;the marginal effect of economic and traffic incentives on ecological civilization have markedly reduced,certain topographic conditions and good resource endowments will contribute to the positive transformation of mountain resources.