新冠疫情冲击、经济韧性与中国高质量发展

新冠肺炎疫情不仅威胁了国人的生命安全和身体健康,对中国宏观经济、不同产业和微观企业产生重大冲击,而且也改变了国人的消费方式和生活方式,对中国经济及其高质量转型升级产生了重要的影响。本文客观地分析了疫情对中国经济高质量转型升级所造成的冲击、对中国经济韧性和企业发展的挑战。特别地,本文还诠释了经济韧性的内涵及其持续演进过程,解析了国民经济韧性体系以及彼此之间的相互作用关系,总结了影响经济韧性水平的各个关键因素,识别了提升经济韧性过程中需要特别权衡的几个重要关系,并围绕全力推进中国经济向数字化、智能化、消费化和服务化转型升级以及中国企业如何有效应对动荡的市场环境提供了相应的对策。

Shocks of 2019-nCoV,Economic Resilience and China's High Quality Development

2019-nCoV not only threatens the lives and health of people,brings significant impacts on economics,finance,industries,regions,and business,and changes the consumption pattern and living style of consumers,but also exerts significant influence on China's economy and its quality transition and upgrading.This paper makes use of six mirrors to conduct a systematic and objective analysis of the shocks,economic resilience and quality development for transitional upgrading in the process of fighting against 2019-nCoV and how to address the challenges and problems in future.To put it more specifically,the paper is intended to reveal the true reality by using the plane mirror,identify the nature by using the microscope,look at the whole picture by using the reflector,focus on the details by using the megaloscope,look forward towards the future by using the telescope,and keep optimistic by using the magic mirror.Furthermore,this paper explores the shocks and impacts of 2019-nCoV on the economic development of China as a whole and various industries and firms in particular.For example,it was reported that the output of most industries showed large decline of 13.5%although those industries related with Materials for medical protection and life achieved a rapid growth,and such high-tech industries as smart watch,smart bracelet,and Semiconductor discrete devices kept the trend of growth in the past two months from Jan.to Feb.of 2020 according to the latest data from Statistical Bureau of China.Among them,auto manufacturing,microcomputer equipment,and general equipment manufacturing,transportation,textile,electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries decreased the most.This paper analyzes the effectiveness and potential problems of the systems of the emergency public governance,which is followed by an intensive review of the concept and key dimensions of economic resilience and its evolution from engineering resilience to ecological resilience and evolutional resilience.By definition,economic resilience is the capabilities economic entity such as a nation,region,city,industry,family or individual to deal with external disturbances,fight against shocks,or adjust the path for self development,which is usually highly related with vulnerability,adaptation,path-dependent,lock-in,recover,collaborative evolution,and restoring competence.Besides,the paper also examines the comprehensive system for economic resilience of a nation,which is usually related to the administrative resilience of national and local government,policy resilience,finance resilience,industry resilience,infrastructure resilience,regional resilience,city resilience,social and community resilience,organizational resilience,family resilience and individual resilience etc.This paper provides brief definitions of the key elements in the economic resilience system,discusses the mutual influences of those elements,and identifies the key factors of determining the economic resilience.In the last part,this paper concludes with several significant aspects that need serious trade-off in increasing economic resilience at different levels,for example,the economic efficiency derived from global vision of labor and the economic resilience required by the increasingly emergent events in the world,the global value chain integration and the emerging anti-globalization,and the government mechanism and the market system.This paper also proposes how to accelerate the dominant transition of quality economic development towards digitalization,intelligentization,servitization consumerization,and how firms in China respond to effectively deal with the uncertain,complex,vague and ambiguous environments by focusing on strategic flexibility,transformation from offline business to online one,customer empowerment and participation,and the maximization of the implications of government policies.