金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的时空影响机制:以粤港澳大湾区为例

综合考虑时间与空间两个维度,识别出影响粤港澳大湾区科技创新的关键因素,旨在促进大湾区创新资源整合和创新水平提高。基于粤港澳大湾区11个城市2006-2016年面板数据,采用面板门限模型和空间计量模型来分析区域内金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的非线性影响机制及空间溢出效应,在此基础上比较行业异质性影响。结果显示:粤港澳大湾区金融集聚对科技创新存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,购房压力对科技创新存在一定程度的负向空间溢出效应。从整个金融业来看,大湾区内金融集聚对科技创新具有显著的促进作用,而购房压力对科技创新没有显著的统计意义上的关系。从金融子行业来看,保险业集聚对科技创新具有显著的正向促进作用,而银行业集聚和证券业集聚对科技创新均没有明显影响。金融(各子行业)集聚与购房压力的互动均对科技创新产生显著的抑制作用;金融集聚、购房压力对科技创新的统计意义上影响具有门限效应,呈现出非线性影响机制。在低、中度购房压力区域内,金融集聚对科技创新具有显著负向影响;在高购房压力区域内,金融集聚对科技创新具有显著正向影响;与此同时,在低、高度金融集聚区域内,购房压力对科技创新没有明显的统计意义上的影响;但在中度金融集聚区域内,购房压力对科技创新具有一定促进作用。地区研发投入、经济发展水平、教育水平、政府扶持政策对科技创新产生积极促进作用,但存在结构性差异。

Research on Time-spatial Impact Mechanism of Financial Agglomeration and Housing Pressure on Science and Technology Innovation in Guangdong,Hong Kong,Macao Bay Area

Comprehensively considering the two dimensions of time and space, it is important to identify the key factors that affect the technological innovation and study how to promote the integration of innovation resources and improvement of the innovation level in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. This paper make an empirical research on nonlinear influence mechanism and spatial spillover effects of financial agglomeration and housing pressure on technological innovation in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area which includes 11 cities based on the panel data from 2006 to 2016 by using panel threshold model and spatial econometric model. The result shows that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation in science and technology innovation, housing pressure and financial agglomeration in this region. From the perspective of the entire financial industry, financial agglomeration in the Greater Bay Area has a significant role in promoting technological innovation, and the housing pressure has no significant impact on technological innovation. From the perspective of financial sub-sectors, only the insurance industry agglomeration has a significant positive effect on technological innovation, while banking industry agglomeration and securities industry agglomeration have no significant impact on technological innovation. The impact of financial aggregation and housing pressure on technological innovation has a threshold effect and presents a nonlinear impact mechanism. In the low and medium housing pressure area, financial aggregation has a significant negative impact on technological innovation;however, in the high housing pressure area, financial aggregation has a significant positive impact on technological innovation;at the same time, in the low and high financial aggregation areas, housing pressure has no obvious impact on technological innovation;but in the moderate financial aggregation area, housing pressure has a significant role in promoting technological innovation. In addition, other important factors such as R&D investment, educational level, government supportive policies and economic development have a significant positive effect on regional technological innovation, but there are structural differences.