经济不确定、银行管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担

基于行为金融理论的有限理性，本文从行为金融学的角度将管理者乐观主义置于经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，利用中国商业银行2008-2017年的季度数据，通过中介效应的两阶段回归实证检验了经济不确定性、管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担三者的关系。研究结果发现：经济不确定性增加会抑制管理者乐观主义的心理偏差；管理者乐观主义会使得银行风险增加；在经济不确定性影响银行风险承担过程中，至少有一部分是通过“管理者乐观主义的中介渠道”实现的，而管理者乐观主义的中介作用具体表现为“遮掩效应”。进一步研究发现，在经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，银行市场纪律约束具有调节作用，并且该调节效应至少部分是通过管理者乐观主义中介渠道而发挥作用的。

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY,MANAGERIAL OPTIMISM AND BANK RISK TAKING

Based on the bounded rationality of behavioral finance theory, this paper puts managerial optimism into the relationship between economic uncertainty and bank risk taking from the perspective of behavioral finance. Using the quarterly data of Chinese commercial Banks from 2008 to 2017, this paper examines the relationship between economic uncertainty, managerial optimism and bank risk taking through the two stage regression of intermediary effect. The results of the study showed as follows: The increasing of economic uncertainty can restrain the psychological deviation of managerial optimism. Managerial optimism will increase the risk of Banks. In the process of the impact of economic uncertainty on bank risk taking, at least in part by “intermediary channel of managerial optimism”, and the intermediary effect of managerial optimism is manifested as the “masking effect”. Further research shows that market discipline plays a moderating role in the relationship between economic uncertainty and bank risk taking, and the moderating effect is at least partly mediated through the managerial optimism channel.